September 11, 2025

Global Wine Market Faces Historic Decline Amid Climate and Economic Pressures

In 2024, global wine production and consumption both fell to their lowest levels in 63 years, marking the sharpest downturn since 1961. The decline reflects not only the mounting effects of climate change on vineyards but also inflation and shifting consumer behavior, which are pushing people further away from wine.

Production Hit Hard by Extreme Weather

According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine production in 2024 totaled 225.8 million hectoliters (1 hectoliter = 100 liters), a 4.8% decrease from the previous year. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, with the impact of climate change evident across regions.

• Italy, the world’s largest producer, suffered from hail, prolonged rains, disease, and drought, all of which disrupted grape growth from flowering to harvest.
• United States production fell 17% from the previous year, with western California hit hardest by heatwaves and inventory pressures, producing its lowest volume since 2004.
• South Africa experienced a 5% drop in output due to heavy rains, strong winds, and floods.

The OIV noted that across the European Union, vineyards faced drought, water stress, storms, and other abnormal conditions, which weakened grape resilience and increased susceptibility to disease.

Consumption Weakens as Prices Climb

Global wine consumption also fell in 2024, totaling 214.2 million hectoliters—a 3.3% drop from the previous year. After a brief recovery in 2021 following the COVID-19 pandemic, demand has been steadily declining since 2022.

Rising production and logistics costs have driven up retail prices, discouraging consumers in 15 of the world’s top 20 wine-drinking countries. Consumption declined not only in the United States and France, the two largest markets, but also sharply in China, which recorded a 19.3% drop. Japan ranked 16th globally, with consumption down 4.4%.

OIV Director General John Barker voiced concern over long-term trends:
“In some mature markets, we are seeing changes in consumer behavior, lifestyle preferences, and social habits.”

The effects of inflation persist, with wine export prices staying high. Japan’s average import price is €6.35 (about ¥1,030) per liter—the second highest in the world after Switzerland.

What Lies Ahead for the Wine Industry?

Looking forward, the global wine sector faces the dual challenge of adapting to climate extremes and winning back consumers whose preferences are shifting toward other beverages. Some producers are investing in drought-resistant grape varieties, exploring new regions at higher altitudes or latitudes, and emphasizing sustainability to appeal to younger drinkers. Whether these strategies will stabilize the industry—or mark the beginning of a long-term transformation—remains to be seen.