June 16, 2023

The Rapid Decline in the 18-year-old Population will Bring a Surplus of Universities in the Future

The birthrate is declining faster than the educational community anticipated. The number of Japanese born in 2022 was 770,747, falling below 800,000 for the first time since statistics began. The population of 18-year-olds in 2040, when these children enter college, is also expected to be 770,000, 110,000 less than the estimate published by the Central Council for Education in 2018.

In 2022, 791,000 students from high schools (full-time and part-time) went on to universities, junior colleges, and vocational schools. If universities and other institutions maintain their current size in 2040, there will still be 20,000 students short, even if all 18-year-olds go on to higher education.

The number of students going on to college is 440,000, with an enrollment rate of 57% projected by Chukyoshin. Suppose there is no significant increase in the number of international students or the percentage of students who go on to higher education, and the maximum number of students to be admitted remains at the current level. In that case, there will be an excess of under 190,000 students, or about 240 students, in terms of the average maximum number of students for all approximately 800 schools.

There has been a series of moves to give up on the market. Keisen Jogakuen University, Kobe Kaisei Jogakuin University, and the junior colleges of Sophia University and Ryukoku University will stop recruiting students after this spring (announcement).

The government's grants support the universities and subsidies amount to over 1 trillion yen annually. However, the country's finances need more room to spare due to increased social security and other expenses.

If universities in rural areas go under, there will be a further exodus of young people to urban centers. Headmaster Juji Kuroda of Kanazawa Institute of Technology (Ishikawa, Japan) complains, "We need to think about how to allocate universities across the country in an era of declining population."

One university professor says, "The world is using universities as a tool for economic growth. Japan has not invested much in universities because it has not become an economy where innovation generation drives growth. The transformation of the economic structure is essential."